Monday, May 18, 2009

Asian Stocks Rise on Growth Optimism; BHP, Toyota Motor Gain

(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose as higher confidence among U.S. homebuilders, a surge in oil prices and a drop in bank borrowing costs stoked optimism the global economy is recovering.

Toyota Motor Corp., which gets a third of its sales in North America, rose 3.1 percent as the yen weakened versus the dollar. BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s biggest oil producer, climbed 3.4 percent after crude-oil futures rose to a six-month high. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Ltd. gained 5.9 percent as the London interbank offered rate fell the most in two months. Indian stocks were poised to advance after election results triggered a surge in their American depositary receipts.

“The housing market is the most important factor in predicting the direction of an economy,” said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, a strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. “When we look back on these times, we’ll see the global economy bottomed out in the April-June period.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 2.2 percent to 98.97 at 11 a.m. in Tokyo. Through yesterday, the gauge climbed 40 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2.8 percent to 9,293.09. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 2.1 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 2 percent. Trading in India is due to resume trading today as a 17 percent surge in the Sensitive Index triggered a suspension yesterday.

Weaker Yen

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The gauge climbed 3 percent yesterday, the most in two weeks, as analysts recommended Bank of America Corp. and Lowe’s Cos. beat earnings projections. Separately, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builders’ confidence advanced in May to the highest level since September.

Toyota rose 3.1 percent to 3,670 yen in Tokyo. Honda Motor Co., which makes 51 percent of its revenue in North America, added 0.9 percent to 2,705 yen. Japanese exporters also rose on speculation a weaker yen will boost the value of overseas sales.

The surge in equities signaled investors are more willing to take risk, making the yen less attractive as a haven. The yen depreciated against the dollar to as much as 96.40 today from 95.03 at the 3 p.m. close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. The Japanese currency weakened versus the euro to as much as 130.68 from 127.91.

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company and Australia’s largest oil producer, rose 3.4 percent to A$34.01. Inpex Corp., Japan’s largest oil explorer, climbed 4.6 percent to 702,000 yen.

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Goldman, Morgan Stanley Said to Apply for TARP Exit

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley applied to repay the combined $45 billion they received in October from the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, said people familiar with the matter.

The three New York-based banks need approval from the Federal Reserve, their primary supervisor, to return the money, according to the people, who requested anonymity because the application process isn’t public. Spokesmen for the three banks declined to comment, as did Calvin Mitchell, a spokesman for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

If approved, the refunds would be the biggest yet to the $700 billion TARP program established by Congress last year during the investor furor that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Banks are keen to repay the money to shake off restrictions on compensation and hiring that were imposed on TARP recipients in February.

“It really is a way for them to break from the herd,” said Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, which holds Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan shares among the $13.8 billion it oversees. “It’s a great way to attract customers, personnel, capital.”

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley were among nine banks that were persuaded in mid-October by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to accept the first $125 billion of capital injections from the TARP program to help restore stability to the financial markets.

Stress-Test Results

The refunds would be the first by the biggest banks that participated in the program. As of May 15, 14 of the smaller banks that received capital under the program had already repaid it, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The 19 biggest banks were waiting for the conclusion earlier this month of so-called stress tests to determine whether they would require additional capital to withstand a further deterioration of the economy.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, the fifth- and second-biggest U.S. banks by assets, were found not to need any more money. Morgan Stanley, the sixth-biggest bank, raised $4.57 billion by selling stock this month, exceeding the $1.8 billion in additional capital the regulators said the bank may require.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on April 21 that he would welcome firms returning TARP funds as long as their regulators sign off. He added that regulators will consider whether banks have enough capital to keep lending and whether the financial system as a whole can supply the credit needed to ensure an economic recovery.

‘Wrong Time’

While executives at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have expressed a desire to repay their TARP money for months, Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Mack told employees on March 30 that he thought it was “the wrong time” to repay the money.

Morgan Stanley, which reported a first-quarter loss, also slashed its quarterly dividend 81 percent to 5 cents. On May 8, when the company sold stock, it also sold $4 billion of debt that didn’t carry a government guarantee. Selling non-guaranteed debt is a prerequisite for repaying TARP money.

The banks will also have to decide whether to try to buy back the warrants that the government received as part of the TARP investments. The warrants, which could convert into stock if not repurchased, would add to the cost of repayment.

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Sunday, May 17, 2009

AIG to Accelerate Separation of AIA, Seek IPO in Asia

(Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out by the U.S. government, is accelerating the separation of American International Assurance Co. and will list it on an Asian exchange.

AIG has hired Blackstone Group LP to advise on the reorganization and initial public offering of its Asian life unit, which operates in 13 markets in the region with more than 20 million customers and over $60 billion of assets, it said in a statement issued through Business Wire today.

AIG, based in New York, is selling property and businesses after being bailed out four times by the U.S. government. The company has tapped about $45.5 billion from a U.S. credit line as of earlier this month.

“At this stage, we believe that a public listing for AIA would be in the best interests of all stakeholders, including U.S. taxpayers, policyholders, employees and distribution partners,” AIG Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy said in the statement.

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Treasuries Advance as Stocks Fall, Fed Prepares to Buy Debt

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, adding to last week’s gain, as Asian stocks extended losses and the Federal Reserve prepared to buy 10-year notes today.

Benchmark 10-year yields will fall about 40 basis points by mid-year and the U.S. economic recovery may stall, according to a report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the 16 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed. The central bank also plans to buy Treasuries on May 20 and May 21 as part of its plan to cap borrowing costs and combat the steepest U.S. recession in 50 years.

“The economy is still in trouble,” said Takashi Yamamoto, chief trader in Singapore at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp., part of Japan’s biggest bank. “Yields will go down.”

The yield on the 10-year note fell three basis points to 3.11 percent as of 10:10 a.m. in Tokyo, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 3.125 percent security maturing May 2019 gained 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 1/8. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Ten-year yields declined 15 basis points last week, as prices posted the first seven-day gain since the period that ended March 20.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares dropped 1.6 percent today, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1.1 percent on May 15, helping fuel demand for the relative safety of government debt.

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VW Calls Off Porsche Talks, Says Atmosphere ‘Not Constructive’

(Bloomberg) -- Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest automaker, called off talks with Porsche SE about a combination less than two weeks after the sports-car manufacturer’s controlling families agreed to pursue a merger.

“There is currently no atmosphere for constructive talks,” Christine Ritz, a spokeswoman at Volkswagen, said yesterday in a telephone interview. In a statement, Porsche said that while a meeting scheduled for today had been canceled, negotiations will resume. It didn’t give details.

The Porsche and Piech families, which together control half of Porsche, agreed May 6 to create an “integrated” carmaker that would put Porsche alongside VW brands including Skoda and Audi. Within a week, VW Supervisory Board Chairman Ferdinand Piech said that Stuttgart, Germany-based Porsche must first trim its 9 billion euros ($12 billion) in net debt before a merger, and that Chief Executive Officer Wendelin Wiedeking and Chief Financial Officer Holger Haerter were partly responsible.

“War has erupted again between Volkswagen and Porsche,” said Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen. Dudenhoeffer was head of marketing strategy and research at Porsche from 1987 to 1990. “Piech is behind that.”

Porsche owns about 51 percent of Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen, whose automotive division had 10.7 billion euros in net cash as of March 31. The maker of the 911 sports car had been accumulating Volkswagen shares since 2005 to protect ties to its largest supplier.

First Strike

Porsche Supervisory Board Chairman Wolfgang Porsche was struggling to raise financing to boost the stake to 75 percent and had been at loggerheads with Piech about how to unite the carmakers. The May 6 agreement between the families effectively put on hold Porsche’s plan to further bolster its stake in Volkswagen by acquiring VW shares.

The Porsche family is upset over Piech’s remarks and is concerned that they may hurt the value of the carmaker, Der Spiegel said on its Web site. When asked whether Volkswagen would pay 11 billion euros for Porsche AG, the operating unit of Porsche SE, Piech said that amount is “definitely a few billion too high,” according to the magazine.

Porsche workers will hold their first-ever strike today to protest the merger plan, Focus magazine reported. On May 7, a day after the initial pact, Porsche fell the most in at least 13 years on the Frankfurt exchange.

The stock has fallen 21 percent this year, cutting Porsche’s market value to 7.2 billion euros. Volkswagen has declined 12 percent, valuing the carmaker at 69.6 billion euros.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Barclays Said to Discuss Sale of BGI With BlackRock, BNY Mellon

(Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc, the U.K.’s third- biggest bank, is in talks to sell its Barclays Global Investors asset management unit to potential buyers including BlackRock Inc. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A sale of Barclays Global Investors, with 1.04 trillion pounds ($1.6 trillion) of funds under management, would derail an agreement announced last month to sell BGI’s iShares unit to CVC Capital Partners Ltd. for $4.4 billion, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

Barclays has until June 18 to look for better offers for the iShares exchange-traded fund business and related units under the terms of the agreement with CVC, a London-based buyout firm. BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Laurence Fink said on an April 21 conference call that he’d be interested in expanding the firm’s position in retail mutual funds through acquisitions.

“Barclays deliberately structured the deal with a go-shop clause” to attract additional bidders, Simon Maughan, an analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd. in London, who has a “neutral” rating on Barclays stock, said on May 11.

Officials at San Francisco-based BGI, New York-based BlackRock and BNY Mellon declined to comment. The Financial Times, which reported the talks earlier, said BGI may sell for about $10 billion.

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Asian Stocks Advance on Sony Forecast, Bank Borrowing Costs

(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed, paring the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s first weekly decline in three weeks, after Sony Corp. forecast a smaller loss than analysts expected and bank borrowing costs plunged.

Sony, the world’s No. 2 maker of consumer electronics, jumped 5.8 percent after the company said it will close factories as part of restructuring efforts. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest lender by market value, rose 2.8 percent as the London interbank offer rate slumped. Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest property insurer, gained 4.8 percent after a person familiar with the matter said six U.S. insurers will receive government bailout funds.

“Optimism lifts the market, and the gain in equities further lifts optimism,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a senior strategist a Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $61 billion in Tokyo. “Like a drunkard waking up with a hangover, investors will eventually be hit with the reality that things haven’t improved overnight.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.8 percent to 96.97 as of 12:38 p.m. in Tokyo. It declined 1 percent this week as the most expensive valuations since 2004 raised concern a two-month stock rally had outpaced earnings prospects.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 1.7 percent to 9,249.48. All markets in Asia rose except China.

Tokyo Electron Ltd. climbed 6.1 percent after saying orders for semiconductor equipment will rise this quarter. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, surged 8 percent in Sydney after saying it remains committed to a $19.5 billion investment from Aluminum Corp. of China. Singapore Airlines Ltd., the world’s second-biggest carrier by market value, gained 2.1 percent on plans to spin off a unit.

Sony Earnings

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent. The benchmark rose 1 percent yesterday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as declining funding costs boosted bank shares. CA Inc., the world’s second-largest maker of software for mainframe computers, led gains by technology companies after reporting earnings that beat analyst estimates.

Through yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 35 percent from a five-year low on March 9 amid speculation the worst of the financial crisis had passed. Shares on the gauge are valued at 32 times trailing earnings, the highest level since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Sony jumped 5.8 percent to 2,540. The company forecast yesterday it will post a 110 billion yen ($1.1 billion) operating loss this year, better than the median 135.6 billion yen loss estimate in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

The company also said it will close a further five factories in addition to three that have already been announced as part of the company’s restructuring plan.

Borrowing Costs

Hitoshi Kuriyama, an analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co., lifted his price target on Sony by 200 yen to 2,800 because the company “is making steady progress with structural changes and ramping up new business models,” according to a report.

Tokyo Electron, the world’s second-largest supplier of semiconductor production equipment, rallied 6.1 percent to 4,330 yen after saying orders are likely to rise this quarter.

HSBC jumped 2.8 percent to HK$3.33 on optimism central bank efforts to unlock credit markets are bearing fruit. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest publicly traded lender by value, added 3.2 percent to 607 yen. Tokio Marine gained 4.8 percent to 2,945 yen.

Libor for three-month dollar-denominated loans fell almost three basis points to 0.85 percent yesterday, according to the British Bankers’ Association.

The rate surged as high as 4.8 percent in October in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as banks became reluctant to lend to each other amid collapsing financial markets.

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