China’s GDP Grows at Slowest Pace in Almost a Decade

(Bloomberg) -- China’s gross domestic product, battered by collapsing exports, grew at the slowest pace in almost 10 years, probably marking the low point for the world’s third-biggest economy.

GDP expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, after a 6.8 percent gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The figure was below the 6.2 percent median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Growth in industrial production and investment accelerated, adding to evidence that Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan is working. The Shanghai Composite Index fell from an eight-month high amid speculation that Wen will have to do more to increase consumption and wean the economy from a dependence on exports.

“They’ve stabilized the economy and now the challenge is to think about how to support consumption and how to support private investment,” said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Plc in Shanghai. “We’re still looking for stimulus measures to encourage consumption.”

Today’s report follows with a statement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that China isn’t a currency manipulator. His stance eases pressure on China to allow its currency to rise, which would hurt efforts to revive exports.

From July 1 to the end of last year, the yuan rose just 0.4 percent against the dollar. Its value has been little changed since the beginning of the year.

Domestic Demand

The currency traded at 6.8313 against the dollar as of 11:34 a.m. in Shanghai, unchanged from before the announcement. Shanghai’s benchmark stock index fell 0.1 percent, trimming its gain this year to 39 percent, the second-best performance among 88 indexes tracked by Bloomberg. It earlier rose as much as 0.5 percent.

“While we are facing difficulty in relying on external demand, we have to turn back to domestic demand, including consumer spending and investment to sustain growth,” said statistics bureau spokesman Li Xiaochao.

Industrial production expanded 8.3 percent in March from a year earlier, up from 3.8 percent in the first two months, and urban fixed-asset investment surged 30.3 percent, the statistics bureau said. Retail sales rose 14.7 percent in March.

Urban disposable incomes rose 11.2 percent excluding inflation and rural cash incomes climbed 8.6 percent.

Read more at Bloomberg

Goldman still cautious about economy

Fortune) -- If the worst is over for the financial sector, you'd never know it to listen to Goldman Sachs.

The New York-based investment firm posted a $1.8 billion first-quarter profit Monday evening, then capitalized on those gains by selling $5 billion in stock Tuesday morning.

The developments put Goldman (GS, Fortune 500) on track to become the first big bank to repay the funds it received from Treasury last fall in the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Once regulators complete their stress test of Goldman and sign off on the repayment plan, the firm will again be free to manage its affairs as it pleases, without fears that details on its pay practices will provoke outrage in Congress.

Despite this, Goldman chief financial officer David Viniar was hardly celebratory on a conference call with analysts and investors Tuesday morning.

Viniar said Goldman remains cautious about the economy and suggested that the firm expects the prices of assets such as real estate to continue to fall.

While further declines may not hammer Goldman, given its reduced exposure to troubled asset classes like real estate and corporate buyout loans, they could weigh on the results of other banks in coming months. Regional banks in particular hold large amounts of commercial real estate on their books.

"There are headwinds still with values, asset values," Viniar said in response to one question Tuesday. "I think those headwinds are less for us because we don't have that many anymore ... but there are still headwinds and that makes us cautious."

Goldman shares, which have surged during the bank stock rally of the past month, dropped 5% Tuesday to about $123, in line with the price of the $5 billion offering.

The drop in Goldman's stock helped lead the KBW Bank index, which has nearly doubled off its multidecade low over the past month, lower in midday trading.

Shares of beaten down bank Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) were rising, however, while those of seemingly healthier firms such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) edged lower.

Chase and Citi are both scheduled to report their first-quarter results later this week. The stronger-than-expected earnings from Goldman and Wells Fargo last week have spurred hopes that Chase and Citi will post similarly strong results.

Barclays Capital analyst Jason Goldberg raised his earnings estimates for both banks Tuesday, saying he expects them to benefit from better capital markets results and strong mortgage revenue. He now expects Citi to post its first profit in six quarters.

Read more at Fortune