Dollar Falls to Record Low on Concern Fed Package Won't Succeed

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record below $1.55 per euro on concern that the Federal Reserve's plan to provide funds to banks won't be enough to break the gridlock in money-market lending and stem credit losses.

The U.S. currency erased more than half of yesterday's 1.6 percent rally versus the yen, the biggest in six months, which came after the Fed said it would extend $200 billion of credit to financial institutions to spur lending. Traders bet the Fed will cut rates by as much as three quarters of a percentage point next week to avert a recession, while the European Central Bank keeps borrowing costs unchanged.

``It's difficult for the dollar to gain traction,'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $50 billion in currency assets at Putnam Investments in Boston. ``The Fed is probably running out of options; the market is fixated on interest-rate differentials, which are clearly negative for the dollar.''

The dollar fell to $1.5504 per euro, the weakest since the euro's 1999 debut, and traded at $1.5492 at 10:12 a.m. in New York, from $1.5338 yesterday. The previous historic low was set yesterday. It dropped to 102.32 yen from 103.42, within one yen of an eight-year low. The euro traded at 158.59 yen from 158.61.

Euro gains were limited after Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said he is ``very vigilant'' on the euro in current circumstances and that exchange rates should reflect fundamentals. He spoke to reporters in Brussels.

Gulf Pegs

The yen climbed against major currencies, including a 1.3 percent rally versus South Africa's rand, as a government report showed Japan's economy grew an annualized 3.5 percent last quarter, faster than the 2.3 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Forward contracts to buy United Arab Emirates dirhams rose the most in two weeks after Economy Minister Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri said the dirham's dollar peg is ``contributing'' to record inflation.

A Qatari official denied in a telephone interview that Gulf central bankers will consider dropping the dollar peg when they meet next week. Gulf countries are under pressure to revalue their currencies or drop dollar pegs after the U.S. currency fell 10 percent against the euro last year and the Fed cut rates. The weaker dollar boosts the cost of imports from Europe, while Gulf states have to follow rate cuts, stoking inflation.

The euro extended its gains against the dollar earlier after a European Union report showed industrial production in the region increased for the first time in three months in January. It rose 0.9 percent from the prior month, more than twice the rate forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

`Stay Short Dollars'

The euro also rose on speculation ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will highlight inflation risks today at a press conference. ECB council member Axel Weber yesterday said that he sees ``no room'' to lower rates.

The ECB's main rate is 1 percentage point above the Fed's 3 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks.

Policy makers in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Switzerland and the euro region agreed yesterday on a second round of emergency- loans to curb rising money-market rates. The Fed said it will lend Treasuries through a new lending tool and widen the collateral it accepts to include mortgage-backed securities.

``Read the need for such new measures as being a symptom of what ails the world and not a panacea for its problems,'' said David Simmonds, the London-based global head of currency research at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, the world's fourth- biggest foreign-exchange trader. ``Stay short dollars.''

 

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TIPS' Yields Show Fed Has Lost Control of Inflation

(Bloomberg) -- Bond investors have never been so sure that the Federal Reserve will lose control of inflation. They're so convinced that they're giving up yields just to buy debt securities that protect against rising consumer prices.

The yield on the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security due in 2012 has been negative since Feb. 29, and traded today at minus 0.17 percent. The notes, which were first sold in 1997, have never before traded below zero. Even so, firms from Deutsche Asset Management to Vanguard Group Inc., the second- biggest U.S. mutual fund company, say TIPS are a bargain.

For the first time in a generation, money managers must come to grips with a central bank that's more intent on spurring the economy than restraining price increases. With oil above $100 a barrel, gold approaching $1,000 an ounce and the dollar at a record low against the euro, TIPS show investors aren't convinced Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will be able to tame inflation once policy makers stop cutting interest rates.

``The way TIPS are trading now, investors believe headline inflation will stay lofty and are willing to give up the real yield for that,'' said Brian Brennan, a money manager who helps oversee $11 billion in fixed-income assets at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. based in Baltimore. Prices for the securities indicate ``a real concern of a recession and high headline inflation,'' he said.

Because TIPS pay a principal amount that rises in tandem with the consumer price index, buyers accept lower yields in a bet the inflation adjustment will make up the difference.

Volcker Fed

Investors typically determine what they are willing to receive in interest by deducting the rate of inflation expected over the life of the securities from the rate on a comparable Treasury. Investors can still earn money from TIPS with sub-zero rates because the principal rises with the CPI.

Five-year TIPS yielded 2.36 percentage points less than similar-maturity Treasuries as of 9:14 a.m. in New York. The so- called breakeven rate has risen from a four-and-a-half-month low of 1.89 percent on Jan. 23, the day after policy makers cut their target lending rate by three-quarters of a point to 3.50 percent in an emergency move.

The last time investors were so worried about faster inflation amid slowing growth, Paul A. Volcker presided over a Fed that would raise rates as high as 20 percent to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s, according to Seth Plunkett, a bond fund manager at American Century Investment Management in Mountain View, California. The firm manages $20 billion.

Fed Forecast

Inflation ``is going to be higher than the Fed's targeted area,'' said Plunkett, whose fund owns a greater percentage of TIPS than contained in the index he uses to measure performance.

In forecasts released last month, the Fed said it expects inflation to accelerate 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent this year, and 1.7 percent to 2 percent in 2009.

TIPS have returned 6.2 percent this year, compared with 3.7 percent from regular Treasuries, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. Mutual funds that specialize in inflation-linked debt attracted a net $2.87 billion in January, boosting their assets to $47.6 billion, according the latest data available from Financial Research Corp. in Boston. In all of 2007, the funds added a net $3.54 billion.

``TIPS are a really good buy,'' said Bill Chepolis, a money manager who helps oversee $9 billion at Deutsche Asset Management in New York. He bought five-year TIPS in the last six months. ``They're cheap with the Fed continuing to emphasize growth over inflation and inflation continuing to come in higher.''

 

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ECB's Trichet `Concerned' About Euro's Appreciation

(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he's ``concerned'' about the euro's appreciation, intensifying his rhetoric after the currency climbed to a record against the dollar.

``We're concerned about excessive exchange-rate moves in the present circumstances,'' Trichet told reporters in Basel, Switzerland today. It's the first time Trichet has specifically expressed worry about the currency since November, when he opposed ``brutal'' moves.

The euro fell as much as 0.3 percent after the comments before rebounding, as investors decided Trichet's ability to weaken the currency is limited. The strongest European inflation in 14 years is preventing the ECB from cutting interest rates while the Federal Reserve is slashing borrowing costs to stave off recession in the world's largest economy.

``Trichet is making a distinct change in emphasis,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. Still, ``while the ECB is on hold and the Fed is cutting rates, rate differentials will continue to move in support for the euro.''

The euro rose to a record $1.5459 on March 7, a day after Trichet declined to sound a warning following the ECB's decision to leave its key rate unchanged at 4 percent.

`Strong Dollar'

On that occasion Trichet noted only that U.S. authorities support a ``strong dollar,'' an observation he repeated today with ``extreme attention.'' U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said March 7 that a strong dollar is ``in our nation's interest.''

Unlike the Fed, which has cut its benchmark interest rate 2.25 percentage points since September, Trichet's ECB has refused to reduce rates with inflation in breach of its 2 percent goal.

By signaling an unwillingness to take action, the ECB is indicating ``tacit support for its record-high euro as it uses currency policy to contain inflationary pressures rather than monetary policy,'' said Ashraf Laidi, a currency analyst at CMC Markets in New York.

ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark told a conference in Paris on March 7 that the ECB does not target a euro-dollar exchange rate. Currency developments ``should be taken into account by monetary policy only to the extent that they have a medium-term influence'' on inflation, he said.

 

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Billionaire dreamlist: helipad and private beach

(Reuters Life!) - Credit crunch? What credit crunch?

More billionaire house hunters than ever are scouring the globe in search of the perfect hideaway.

So how about a Parisian mansion with its own ballroom, a forest-fringed estate in Andalusia complete with helipad or maybe a villa in Anguilla with a "feather-topped beach lapped by deep turquoise waters."

Reveling in the purple prose so beloved by estate agents, the glossy magazine Country Life has picked five of the top properties on the market that even the super-rich dream about.

For $95 million, why not snap up Hillandale, an English country-style estate just 50 miles from Manhattan.

Just four minute's drive from the billionaire's playground of Monaco you could put in a bid for the Domain, a Cote d'Azur mansion with its own stud farm, paddocks and dressage arena.

The credit crunch may have hit big spenders in London's City financial district who once happily invested their huge bonuses in property. But the billionaires are not feeling the chill.

 

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Wal-Mart February same-store sales up 2.6 pct

(Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday reported a 2.6 percent rise in sales, excluding fuel, at U.S. stores open at least a year in February.

 

Analysts, on average, were expecting the company to report a rise of 1.1 percent, according to Reuters Estimates, while the company had forecast same-store sales to be between flat and up 2 percent.

 

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Credit Swaps Thwart Fed's Ease as Debt Costs Surge

(Bloomberg) -- Credit trading models used by Wall Street have gone haywire, raising company borrowing costs even as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cuts interest rates.

General Electric Co. is one of five U.S. companies rated AAA by both Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service, making its ability to repay debt unquestioned. Yet when the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company sold 2.25 billion euros ($3.35 billion) of five-year bonds last week, its annual interest payment was $17 million higher than on a sale nine months ago.

Borrowers from investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to Germany's HeidelbergCement AG face the same predicament. Yields on $5.12 trillion of corporate bonds tracked by Merrill Lynch & Co. average 2.05 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, the most since at least 1997.

The higher costs are an unintended consequence of securities that allow investors to speculate on corporate creditworthiness. So-called correlation models used to value them have become unreliable in the fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. Last month some showed the odds of a default by an investment-grade company spreading to others exceeded 100 percent -- a mathematical impossibility, according to UBS AG.

``The credit-default swap market is completely distorting reality,'' said Henner Boettcher, treasurer of HeidelbergCement in Heidelberg, Germany, the country's biggest cement maker. ``Given what these spreads imply about defaults, we should be in a deep depression, and we are not.''

Hedging Losses

The problem started in the second half of last year when subprime mortgage delinquencies started to rise, causing investors to retreat from complex instruments such as synthetic collateralized debt obligations, or packages of credit-default swaps that became hard to value. The swaps are contracts based on bonds and used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt.

As values of CDOs began to fall, banks that had sold swaps underlying the securities started to buy indexes based on them instead, a method of hedging their losses on portions of the CDOs they owned. The purchases are driving the cost of the contracts higher, raising the perception that company bonds tied to the swaps are suddenly riskier and leading investors to demand higher yields throughout the corporate debt market.

The Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index, a gauge of credit-default swaps on 125 companies from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to Walt Disney Co., more than doubled since the start of the year to a record 171 basis points on March 4. The index, which dropped to a low of 29 in February last year, was at 170.5 basis points at 7:10 a.m. in New York, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

 

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European Stocks, U.S. Index Futures Decline; Asian Shares Rise

 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell for the third day this week and U.S. index futures declined on concern credit- market losses will widen at financial companies and record oil prices will curb airline earnings.

UBS AG sank to the lowest since 2003 after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Europe's biggest bank probably sold $24 billion in holdings of mortgage-backed securities in a ``fire sale.'' Aegon NV, the second-largest Dutch insurer, lost the most in three weeks on a 26 percent drop in earnings. British Airways Plc had its steepest decline in a week, saying its profit margin will drop.

A rally in mining companies helped Asian stocks rise for the first time in six days, while U.S. index futures fell before a report that will probably show contracts to buy previously owned homes slipped in January for a third month.

``News from the financial industry brings a negative wind,'' said Laurent Vallee, who helps oversee $6.1 billion at Richelieu Finance in Paris. ``We remain cautious on financial stocks.''

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 0.3 percent to 314.62 as of 12:45 p.m. in London. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 0.5 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.8 percent.

Stocks maintained their losses after the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged. ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet is scheduled to brief reporters at 2:30 p.m. Frankfurt time. The Bank of England earlier kept its benchmark rate on hold.

The Stoxx 600 has lost 14 percent this year on concern the collapse of subprime mortgages and a slowdown in the U.S. economy will curb profit growth in Europe. UBS may have writedowns of about $18 billion after unloading 25 billion Swiss francs of mortgage-backed securities, according to JPMorgan.

Money Markets

Carlyle Capital Corp., which invests in AAA rated mortgage securities, failed to meet margin calls and said today it received a notice of default, while Thornburg Mortgage Inc., a U.S. specialist in adjustable-rate loans too big to be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, also received a default notice on a $320 million loan.

The cost of borrowing euros for three months rose to the highest level in seven weeks, fueling concern a coordinated effort by central banks to limit the fallout from the U.S. housing slump and revive lending is faltering.

UBS dropped 2 percent to 31.6 francs. Europe's biggest bank by assets ``likely'' sold its 25 billion francs ($24 billion) prime Alt-A portfolio in a ``fire sale,'' JPMorgan said as it lifted its ``credit-crisis'' writedown estimate for the bank to 18.5 billion francs.

 

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